Should primary schools predict who will become 'Neet' at 16?

A new toolkit that aims to identify if a 10-year-old is at risk of becoming a Neet (not in education, employment or training) at 16 is being rolled out to all Suffolk primary schools.

The Risk of Neet Indicator (Roni) is available from the Department for Education for secondary schools, but has been refined by Suffolk County Council and the NHS for younger pupils.

The NHS's Helen Bowles said they wanted to identify children at risk "earlier", so they could support them and their families.

Maria Kemble, executive head teacher at two Suffolk primaries, said the tool was welcome, but it was important that children were not labelled.

The latest official data from August suggests 981,000 people in the UK aged 16-24 were not in education, employment or training between April and June 2026.

The government said it was its responsibility to address the deeper reasons why some youngsters disengaged from education.

Labour's former health secretary Alan Milburn was commissioned to report on the growing number of Neet children and, in May, he warned it could apply to one in six young people in the next five years unless urgent action was taken.

His full recommendations are due in the coming weeks.

Kemble is executive head at St Joseph's Catholic Primary in Sudbury and Saint Edmund's Catholic Primary in Bury St Edmunds.

She welcomed any tool that could support staff to create better outcomes for children, but she had concerns.

"So we've got this tool, we identify these children and then what happens? Is there going to be additional support and who is going to provide that? Will there be additional funding?" she asked.

"It could be quite unhelpful [to parents] if they feel their child is being labelled and that's somehow a judgement."

She feared that if Roni suggests a 10-year-old could become a Neet, then there might be a danger of that becoming a "self-fulfilling prophecy" at 16.

However, she felt staff would embrace the tool if it helped them support children, as long as it was not just "another tick-box exercise".

"We've got to see beyond the label. [A child] is a human being — we've got to think about them as an individual."

The toolkit is a checklist of 20 challenges a child may face.

The NHS, council and a number of Suffolk head teachers reviewed Roni, adapted it for primary schools, based around specific issues in the county.

Bowles, head of work and health at the NHS Norfolk and Suffolk Integrated Care Board (ICB), said: "One area that was missing was around military families [who] may move around quite a bit."

She said the challenges children faced were "very varied" and included:

• lower attainment
• being a young carer
• having siblings struggling at school
• attendance levels
• health needs
• a child's home set-up
• whether there was housing support or low income in the family
• if English was an additional language

Once areas of support were identified, the toolkit suggests where help can be found.

Bowles said this was not about "labelling" children or "judging" parents.

"It's about saying we know that you're having some challenges... and it's about how best we can support you," she said.

Sonya Bolton, from Bury St Edmunds, has children at primary school.

"It might feel judgmental and I'm not sure in Year 5 that I would be that comfortable that they were predicting how the future can go. Some children do much better in primary then struggle in high school and vice-versa," she said.

She also felt teachers might find the conversation with parents "difficult".

"To just come out and say... we think your child will not be in education, employment and further training — I would wonder how they've managed to scale that from such a young age."

Ben Vann, from Bury St Edmunds, has one child.

"If it was something that would help them develop and move them on, then it's probably a good thing," he said.

"I think it's better to be informed."

Nicola is a mother of two children — one over 16 and not in education, employment or training; the other is at primary school.

She welcomed the idea of early intervention.

"Having a child who's already Neet, I wouldn't want that for anybody else because it's so much uncertainty. It's really good that those early interventions can happen," she said.

However she was uncertain how a tool could predict outcomes for children as young as 10.

"It's quite a difficult age because they've still got six to seven years [in school]. If there is a tool, then great, but I don't know how accurate and reliable it would be," she said.

Youth Future Foundation is a not-for-profit, independent organisation which looks at how young people find jobs.

It has researched the use of Neet indicators.

Chris Goulden, its deputy chief executive, said it was about school staff making a considered judgement by looking at the data and applying their knowledge of the child.

He said it was not about "labelling young people too early".

He added that what Suffolk was doing was unusual.

Matthew Cooke, assistant director for special educational needs and disabilities and inclusion at the council, defended using the tool at primary age, and said it allowed resources to be allocated to children sooner.

"Making young people visible in Year 5... gives us much more time," he said.

He insisted using Roni would not be mandatory.

"We're not imposing this upon schools, we're working with them."

Schools Minister, Paul Waugh, said: "It's our responsibility as a government to address the deeper reasons some young people disengage from education."

He added that the government was expanding mental health support teams, rolling out free breakfast clubs and making more children eligible for free school meals.

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