Burial mata ova Zambia former president turn election into serious contest

Former President Edgar Lungu shadow dey hang ova di Zambia election campaign.

Even though e kpai more dan one year ago for South Africa, dem neva bury am becos of serious disagreement between President Hakainde Hichilema and Lungu family wey don make political divisions worse.

Dis mata don help increase support for opposition National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP), especially for northern part of di kontri, wey be traditional stronghold of Lungu Patriotic Front PF, as pipo see am as di best chance to remove di incumbent from power.

Meanwhile, di mata don make Hichilema and im United Party for National Development (UPND) second-term bid more complicated. Di party dey get most of im support from di south, west and north-west, while e dey try to expand im reach across di whole kontri.

Di political battle dey play out for streets of di capital, Lusaka.

As afternoon heat dey blaze across di city, di familiar sound of business activity wey dey hang ova busy markets dey mix wit campaign songs and jingles.

Election posters dey evriwia: from lamp posts and shop fronts to massive billboards, wit faces of presidential and parliamentary candidates dey look down on pipo wey dey pass.

All dis dey happun as Zambia dey prepare for one of di most unpredictable elections in years.

On 13 August, more dan eight million registered voters go get chance to choose president and new parliament. Hichilema want anoda five years afta im landslide win ova Lungu for 2021 on a platform of change.

But wetin many pipo expect say go be relatively straightforward contest dis time don change bicos of Lungu death, di late rise of opposition challenger Brian Mundubile, continue pressure ova cost of living and questions about credibility of di election.

All dis dey happun against di background of recent constitutional reforms wey aim to give young pipo and women more voice.

Di main discussion for street corners and inside minibus taxis na cost of living.

Zambia no escape di worldwide pressure of high food and energy prices wey follow di pandemic and later geopolitical shocks.

Annual inflation don cool to around 6.6%, im lowest in eight years, and di currency, kwacha, don strengthen, but for many families di relief still dey mostly on paper.

"Di cost of living, I no fit say e dey okay," Given Kangwa, 27-year-old flour-mill worker wey dey stand for Lusaka City Market, tok.

"For wia I dey work, for example, di money wey dem dey pay us no dey enough and we no fit take care of our lives."

Kangwa explain say dem dey pay am about 3,000 kwacha ($157; £117) evri month, wey barely dey enough to cova food, rent and oda expenses.

Theresa Zulu, wey dey sell street food, explain am more clearly. "Money don dey veri hard to get. We dey try to remain strong to survive, but tins don really hard for us."

Voters, as usual, no dey forgive.

Macroeconomic gains no mata as much as di price of cooking oil, for example, wey don rise by more dan 70% ova di past five years. Zambians also dey struggle wit unreliable electricity supply.

One serious drought for 2024-2025 cut hydropower generation, and cause power outages wey reach up to 20 hours evri day for some parts of di kontri.

Di govment don since increase costly electricity imports and speed up solar projects, wey don reduce di blackouts for recent months.

But di memory of dark houses and food wey spoil inside fridges still dey.

But Hichilema dey defend im record, as e say wen e enta office, tins dey bad and e don lay foundation for success.

"We inherit kontri wey don break down… di economy dey decline," Hichilema tell BBC for Lusaka.

Wen e take office for 2021, Zambia dey inside debt crisis and e don fail to make im payments.

Di later restructuring of more dan $13bn £9.7bn external debt don, according to di president, produce yearly savings of around $1.9bn.

"Na dis money we dey put inside di economy… into investment spending like free education."

Di free education policy - wey cova primary and secondary levels - don bring millions of children back to classrooms.

Thousands of teachers and health workers don get employment. Constituency development funds don increase sharpaly.

Copper production, wey be di backbone of di economy, don recova strongly, foreign reserves don reach record levels and investor confidence don return.

Supporters dey point to tins wey pipo fit see.

"I tink opportunities don increase, looking at di number of pipo wey don get employment - e don increase among civil servants. And opportunities don just increase," one young woman wey dey hope to bicom teacher tok.

Di unemployment rate as di statistics agency measure am don record small fall from 13% to 11% ova di last four years.

Critics dey tok say di benefits neva reach enough families.

Civil society groups also dey raise concerns say despite Hichilema promises to run more open democracy, some opposition figures don get silenced afta dem convict dem for hate speech.

Di political situation change dramatically wit Lungu death on 5 June last year.

Di courts don rule say e no fit contest again afta e win two elections, but im death remove di opposition most recognisable figure and at first look like say e create easier path to victory for di incumbent.

Lungu PF party split, and some politicians and supporters move to oda opposition groups.

Dis speed up di coming togeda of opposition wey split around Mundubile, 55-year-old lawyer, accountant and former govment chief whip under Lungu.

Within few weeks afta e submit im nomination papers for May, Mundubile popularity grow as presidential candidate of one opposition group, Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance, wey dey contest under di previously unknown NRPUP name.

Makebi Zulu - lawyer wey dey closely connected to Lungu family - na im running mate.

Di alliance don use di continued loyalty wey still dey for former PF strongholds and public frustration ova cost of living to im advantage.

Mundubile main message na about generation and inclusion.

"We dey move women and young pipo from di margins to di centre of policy and economic transformation," e tell BBC.

"We believe say young pipo get solutions to most of dia challenges. Wetin dem no get na big broda, wetin dem no get na caring govment wey fit help dem achieve dia objectives and goals. So I dey position mysef as president as big broda to young pipo."

Di Lungu legacy still dey affect di race in unexpected ways.

Di disagreement ova di former president burial - wey still no get solution becos di family no want make Hichilema get anytin to do wit am - don bicom strong political symbol.

Mundubile don publicly promise say if e and Zulu win di election, dem go make sure say Lungu get dignified burial.

Second-hand clothes seller Enock Mabenga say e dey support Mundubile "bicos we want to improve our lives".

But no be evribodi dey convinced about opposition return.

"I no go like make dem come back in di first place bicos we give dem chance to rule di kontri and we see wetin dem do," Edith Muntanga, wey dey in her late 30s, tok, referring to di previous govment record on corruption and govnance.

Dis election na di first one under major constitutional changes wey dem pass for late 2025.

Di amendments introduce mixed-member system for National Assembly, wit most seats given based on constituencies while some go reflect di proportion of votes wey each party get.

Di number of constituency seats don increase from 156 to 226, and 40 additional seats go dey awarded through proportional representation: 20 for women, 15 for young pipo, wey mean pipo under 35, and five for persons wit disabilities.

Di reforms aim to increase representation for parliament wia women don dey underrepresented for long. Na time go tell weda e go translate into meaningful influence.

For di presidential ballot, gender representation dey limited: out of di 14 candidates wey electoral commission clear, na only one be woman - independent Given Katuta.

To win for di first round, presidential candidate need to get more dan 50% of votes wey pipo cast. If nobodi reach dis level, second round go happun within 37 days, wey fit happun bicos plenty candidates dey contest.

Civil society voices don raise concerns about di integrity of di process.

Linda Kasonde, human rights activist and former president of Law Association of Zambia, don question di composition of di electoral commission.

"For di constitution of di electoral commission, some of di members of di commission dey align politically wit di incumbent ruling party and pipo no see dem as independent," she tok.

"And so we still dey wait to see how dem go manage di actual election, but as di election dey approach, some pipo dey worry about weda dem dey act in di interest of all Zambians."

Di commission don consistently reject accusations of political bias, and dem say dem dey operate strictly "within constitutional mandate [and] adhere to principles of transparency and independence".

Zambia get proud record of peaceful elections and democratic transfers of power.

All sides dey often tok about dis history. But trust in institutions, cost of living and di unfinished tori of wia di former president go finally rest don join togeda to make dis election harder to predict.

As campaign rallies dey fill football grounds, Zambians dey weigh di tins wey dem fit see as gains ova di past five years against di daily struggles wey still dey define dia lives.

On 13 August, dem go give dia verdict.