Rain to return this weekend as parts of Wales now in drought

If you cannot remember the last time it rained, you are probably not alone.

June was actually wetter than average in the UK, which might come as a surprise given our recent run of weather, but for England and Wales the majority of that rain came down in the first two weeks of the month.

Parts of Wales are now in drought after a series of back-to-back heatwaves and a drier than usual April to June.

Most of Wales has seen less than 25mm (1in) of rain since the middle of June, but it has been particularly dry in the north-east with Rhyl in Denbighshire recording only 3mm.

Since 15 June, most of England has recorded less than 10mm of rain with large areas of central southern England seeing 3mm or less. Meanwhile, Wisley in Surrey has had no rain at all for 36 consecutive days.

A Thames Water hosepipe ban came into force on Thursday, adding to other bans already in place for customers of other water companies across the south of the UK, as parts of southern, central and eastern England were declared to be close to drought.

Northern Ireland had a very wet June, recording 67% more rain than average, and it was also very wet in western Scotland. However, July has been much drier than average in Northern Ireland and most of Scotland, though the rain has continued in the Highlands, with Aultbea already reaching the July average rainfall, and with more on the way.

This weekend will bring a change in our weather patterns.

Normally weather systems move eastwards with time. However, the high pressure we have had for a long time now is actually going to move westward, something known as retrogression.

This will allow the jet stream to move right over the UK and steer weather fronts in, bringing some welcome rain.

The hills of Northern Ireland, northern England and north Wales will have 5-10mm of rain this weekend.

Western Scotland will be wetter, with 10-20mm over high ground.

The rain is likely to be lighter and patchier in the Midlands, southern and east England with just a few millimetres expected and some areas could miss out altogether.

In the grand scheme of things the rain is not that much, but could double the amount we have seen since mid-June in some areas.

While it may bring some relief to parched gardens, it will not be enough to stop a slide towards more widespread drought conditions.

Next week, rain looks to be concentrated in the north-west of the UK, and perhaps very wet in the Highlands late in the week. Little, if any, rain is expected in the south and east.

Beyond that, into August, there could be another heatwave forming in Spain and France, though it's too soon to tell whether that will reach the UK.

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