Reform still ahead nationally in recent pollspublished at 14:30 BST

14:30 BST

By Daniel Wainwright

While Andy Burnham has won for Labour in Makerfield, Reform UK has been leading national opinion polls for more than a year.

Reform has an average of around 27% support in polls conducted in the two weeks up to 18 June, which is down from its peak last autumn but still ahead of everyone else.

Labour is currently vying with the Conservatives for second place, with both parties on an average of about 19%.

The Greens and the Liberal Democrats are on an average of 13% and 12% respectively.

The SNP are on 3% and Plaid Cymru are on 1% with their vote share measured across the whole of Great Britain, but they only stand in Scotland and Wales respectively.

While Restore Britain came third in Makerfield, we don’t have an average of their support as only a few polling companies currently produce a figure for them. For example, YouGov, external’s latest poll has Restore on about 4% and Survation’s latest , externalsuggests around 2% of people would back them, while some pollsters place them in categories such as "Other".

All figures are what’s known as "headline" voting intention which is where pollsters have either removed or adjusted for people who were undecided or didn’t intend to vote.

Jack Grey
Live reporter

Image source, Reuters | Getty Images

Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election for Labour with 55% of the vote, opening the door to a possible challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

What has Burnham said

• In his victory speech, Burnham said Labour’s win could be the “turning point” for politics in the UK, telling the Labour Party that “this is a final chance to change”
• He later told supporters he plans to set out a "new path for Britain", but did not announce any plans to launch a leadership bid

Starmer's reaction

• Starmer congratulated Burnham, writing that voters chose “hope and optimism over division and hate”
• Speaking to reporters, the prime minister said a leadership contest would "plunge the country into chaos" - but added he would stand if one was triggered

... and from our correspondents

• The prime minister woke this morning to an imminent threat to his position following Burnham's decisive victory, writes BBC chief political correspondent Henry Zeffman
• The sheer size of Burnham's win adds weight to the argument of his supporters that he is the only Labour figure who can beat Reform UK, according to BBC political correspondent Alex Forsyth
• Our political editor Chris Mason suggests a lively few weeks are in store after Burnham's emphatic win leaves Starmer and Labour with a big decision to make

While the Makerfield by-election has dominated headlines, constituents in two areas in Scotland also headed to the polls yesterday to vote for their own MPs.

As Andy Burnham won in Makerfield, the Conservatives celebrated a result that pushed the SNP into second in Aberdeen South, although the latter held on to their seat in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry with a large margin.

Here are some snapshots from across the vote counts.

Image source, PA Media

Image source, Reuters

Image source, PA Media

Image source, PA Media

Image source, PA Media

Image source, PA Media

Today marks a "really significant moment in British politics", according to the chief executive of polling firm Ipsos in the UK and Ireland.

Kelly Beaver tells Radio 4's World at One that while Keir Starmer's leadership has been under pressure for some time, there is now a "clear alternative" for MPs to support in Parliament.

Asked if the by-election result could translate into a national vote, Beaver says there were some circumstances that made Makerfield unique, such as it being in Andy Burnham's home region.

But she says there are elements that would give Labour MPs hope for a general election.

Beaver says Burnham polls particularly well for being clear on what he stands for, being likeable and in touch with ordinary people - areas where Starmer has struggled.

However, she adds that leadership is only one factor in a general election, with people also deciding based on the party and the issues of the day.

Image source, Reuters

Keir Starmer has reiterated today that he is "not going to walk away" from his role as prime minister.

However, if this changed, he could choose to stay in post during a transition period before handing over to a successor, who would be both Labour leader and prime minister.

If Starmer chose to resign with immediate effect, a member of the cabinet would replace him in a caretaker capacity.

This would involve a decision by the cabinet, which would consult with Labour's National Executive Committee. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy would not necessarily fill the caretaker role.

A leadership contest would then follow.

In this scenario, each potential challenger would need support from 20% of the party's MPs and to be backed by either 5% of constituency Labour parties, or at least three affiliated organisations - of which two must be affiliated trade unions.

Image source, PA Media

Wes Streeting has the support to stand in a potential leadership race if he needs to, says Labour MP Melanie Ward.

She resigned from government to support Streeting’s bid to become Labour leader after he resigned as health secretary.

Ward adds that she thinks all the key Labour players need to speak to each other this weekend so that an orderly transition can take place.

Speaking to Vicki Young on Politics Live, she says: "In the life of any captain of a team … there comes a time when the captain has to hand over the armband - a time when the captain has lost the dressing room."

Ward also says Streeting is "prepared to speak to the other key players and work out a different way through this".

• You can catch up with today’s Politics Live on BBC iPlayer.

Can the PM make it to a contest without losing ministers' confidence?published at 13:10 BST

13:10 BST

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Image source, EPA/ PA Media

Two of the most common words I have heard from Labour MPs this morning: "deluded" and "coronation".

Deluded: that is how some Labour MPs, across different party factions, are describing the prime minister’s apparent belief that he can fight on. Starmer’s view, and that of his allies, is that those who believe that Labour can change leader within two years of a general election without meeting the same fate as the Conservatives are the truly deluded ones.

Coronation: the term increasingly being used to describe the leadership election which is now inevitable. In other words, MPs are saying they do not believe there will be a full contest which gets to the stage of a ballot of Labour members, but that instead Burnham would end up being the only candidate and therefore elected by acclamation, as Gordon Brown was in 2007.

One complicating factor in any coronation could be Wes Streeting, who quit as health secretary in protest at Starmer’s leadership last month.

Some MPs are pretty sceptical that he has the support of 81 MPs required to trigger a contest.

We may find out within days, but he is likely to come under real pressure including from some of his allies, to fold in behind Burnham to enable a swift transition.

Of course the bigger complicating factor is Starmer, who says he would be a candidate and automatically has a place on the ballot of party members as the incumbent. In that sense his path to the leadership election is straightforward – he doesn’t need the backing of any of his MPs, let alone 81.

Yet in our system the prime minister can only be the prime minister if he commands the confidence of a majority of MPs.

Can Starmer make it to a leadership election without losing his ministers’ confidence in a messy, public manner? That is the big question of the next few days.

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent, in Ashton-in-Makerfield

Andy Burnham's team and supporters have been singing Oasis songs in the club house after his victory rally in Ashton-in-Makerfield.

We could hear them singing the Manchester band's hit Half the World Away from outside.

I’m told Burnham was leading the singing.

More from Starmer's call to Labour staffers now - read our last post for the first instalment.

He emphasises the need "to take the fight to Reform" and "maintain that Labour mayoralty" in Greater Manchester - where a contest has been triggered to replace Andy Burnham as he heads to Westminster.

“This is the fight in politics at the moment. We should relish the opportunity to take the fight to Reform and give them a hiding in Manchester, and frankly, expose them for who they are: divisive, inward, wanting to divide our country, the complete opposite values to us," he says.

Starmer claims Reform only seeks to "exploit" problems, pull communities apart and set people against each other.

“That is the complete opposite of us in the Labour Party, who believe in our communities, who believe that by coming together we get the best out of everyone. We are the true patriots, they are plastic patriots," he adds.

Image source, Pool/Getty Images

Keir Starmer is thanking Labour staff across the country for their work on the Makerfield by-election.

In a call, the prime minister calls on Labour to "pull together as a party and a movement" following Burnham's by-election win.

"The one thing we've got to avoid doing is plunging our party and our country into chaos by turning on each other and tearing apart our party and our movement," he says.

Starmer adds that this is what the last government did under the Conservatives, and "we need to learn that lesson".

The Makerfield by-election has further inflamed speculation around a potential Labour leadership contest.

While no official challenge has been launched, there have been rumours for a long time now around possible contenders.

Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, newly elected MP Andy Burnham and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner are considered the main potential challengers to Keir Starmer.

Rayner is favoured by some on the left of the party. She delivered a speech in March in which she said Labour was "running out of time".

Burnham's win inthe Makerfield by-election has set him up for a route to launch a challenge. Speaking this morning, he stressed a need for change across the UK and pledged to lay out a "new path for Britain".

Streeting resigned as health secretary following the local election results, telling Starmer he had "lost confidence" in him. He has confirmed he would enter any potential contest and previously told BBC Newsnight he would be "prepared" to trigger one.

Here's BBC Radio 5 Live's Matt Chorley on how a contest would work:

Image source, PA Media

Chris Ward, a minister in Keir Starmer’s government, has told Vicki Young on Politics Live there shouldn’t be a leadership election.

He says the PM "has a mandate from the party to be leader, and from the country to lead the country.

"That’s the mandate he’s been delivering for the last two years. And he’s going to step up delivering in the coming months as we move into the next phase of the government."

• Keep up to date with the latest reaction to today's result on Politics Live on BBC iPlayer.

No 10 has just reiterated Starmer's earlier remarks that there currently is no leadership challenge and that he intends to stand should there be one.

Asked whether any ministerial resignations should be expected today, an official spokesman says: "The prime minister is very much getting on with the business of delivering his government’s agenda - the agenda that stabilised the economy, that’s invested in public services and brought down waiting lists."

Liz Roberts
Reporting from Ashton-in-Makerfield

We've been hearing from people in Makerfield, following Andy Burnham's big win there last night.

Tony Thakur says he would traditionally vote for the Tories, but at the ballot box yesterday he picked Andy Burnham.

"I was looking at the country and thinking, do we need a change? yes. I think Andy Burnham is the best option for that," he tells me.

Thakur warns that Burnham has a "big job on his hands", adding: "I think it’s good news for now but we have some turmoil ahead."

Gemma Crinigan says "the result didn’t surprise me" as "people turned out in their droves to vote for Andy".

The results back that up, as the former Greater Manchester mayor took 55% of the vote.

Crinigan tells me: "I think we’re voting for his style of politics. We’re voting for what we’ve had in Manchester. We want people to feel better."

Meanwhile, Keith Crossland tells me: "I’ve always been Labour, but voted Reform this time. I thought it was time for a change and give someone else a chance."

On Burnham's win for Labour, Crossland says he hopes the newly-elected MP "does what he’s promised and does something for us, not just down in London".

A former cabinet minister - and key ally of Andy Burnham - says she hopes the new Makerfield MP and Keir Starmer can speak and agree on a "managed way forward" in the coming days.

Louise Haigh tells the BBC that Burnham's team wants to avoid a leadership contest if possible, but that it is "quite clear" the prime minister cannot take the party into another set of the elections.

Haigh, who managed Burnham's campaign, asks for Starmer to reflect on last night's results and do "what's right in the interest of the country and of the party".

Asked if Burnham wants to be prime minister, Haigh says: "Andy has come back to Westminster to change Labour and to take that right to the top."

James Cook
Scotland editor

The Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has arrived in north-east Scotland to celebrate her party’s victory in the Aberdeen South by-election.

Addressing the media at the offices of a North Sea business on the outskirts of the city, Badenoch says Douglas Lumsden’s victory sent a message about the importance of investing in oil and gas.

She says the party has won a “referendum on oil and gas” and Aberdeen had sent a message that the city and the sector would not be ignored.

"Energy security is national security," she adds.

As expected, the election for the new mayor of Greater Manchester will take place on 30 July, the Greater Manchester Combined Authority announces.

A contest was automatically triggered by Andy Burnham's victory in Makerfield overnight.

The mayor of Greater Manchester is also the Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) for the region - a role you cannot hold alongside being an MP.

Image source, Reuters

Andy Burnham has just addressed his supporters as he kicks off his first day as the new MP for Makerfield.

Though most of his remarks were rooted in his plans for the constituency, we also heard a bit of the Burnham vision for the UK (no mention of a leadership challenge, though).

What else did we hear from Burnham?

• He thanked the people of Makerfield for electing him and supporting his campaign
• He also remarked on the "significant sacrifice" of former MP Josh Simons for giving him the opportunity to stand
• Touching on the economy, immigration and politics, he pledged to lay out a "new path for Britain" and said this is Labour's "last chance to change"

• It follows calls from a number of Labour MPs this morning for a leadership contest and a "transition to something new"

What about Starmer?

• The prime minister is holding firm. He said he would stand if there was a leadership contest - but warned that such a move would “send the country into chaos”
• He congratulated Burnham for the win in Makerfield, though, and called it a “very good victory”

So, who won what and where?

• Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with 55% of the vote - and 9,000 more than Reform UK, which came in second
• Labour weren’t the only ones celebrating overnight. The Scottish Conservatives won their first Westminster by-election for 50 years in Aberdeen South, taking it from the SNP
• It wasn’t all bad news for the SNP, though. It held onto Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by a sizeable margin

No sign of leadership bid - Burnham's allies hope PM may yet be persuaded game is uppublished at 11:16 BST

11:16 BST

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent, in Ashton-in-Makerfield

Image source, PA Media

You heard there a bit of Andy Burnham’s vision - the pitch he’s likely to develop in the next few weeks in a leadership contest.

What you didn’t hear was Burnham saying he would be launching that leadership bid.

His allies hope the prime minister may yet be persuaded the game is up - and decide to stand down - that’s likely to be the case over the weekend.

But the prime minister has shown no signs of going anywhere.

So, Burnham looks likely to have a big call to make soon; how and when to launch a leadership challenge.

Burnham says he will "work relentlessly" to deliver on the change voters demanded.

He says Westminster has for too long looked past the needs of Makerfield, adding: "Well, no more. That changes today."

He says power was for the first time put "where it should be... in the hands of the people here."

"They were the ones who had that power and they have used it, and they have told us what they want. Now we will deliver it."

That concludes his speech. We'll bring you a round up of the key lines - plus a digest of all of the events of last night and this morning - shortly.